Share Your Number
Market timing and stock selection
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=4695&t=3&scode...
SP500 PE ratio all time high.
Companies hoarding cash.
Banks not increasing lending despite influxes of massive amounts of cash.
Phil Town commenting on moving money into inflation resistant equities: "Oil. Food. Farmland. Mining operations. Railroads. Coal. Anything that can raise its prices as its costs go up. For example, Burlington Northern railroad has a near monopoly on moving coal..."
Fed stating that it will increase rates once there are signs the economy is improving.
Is this really a time to be entering the market, or for those lucky enough to have been in early, a time to be weary and to take profits at the first signs of weakness? Comments? Can anyone give me a second opinion on Tsakos, TNP?
Thanks
SP500 PE ratio all time high.
Companies hoarding cash.
Banks not increasing lending despite influxes of massive amounts of cash.
Phil Town commenting on moving money into inflation resistant equities: "Oil. Food. Farmland. Mining operations. Railroads. Coal. Anything that can raise its prices as its costs go up. For example, Burlington Northern railroad has a near monopoly on moving coal..."
Fed stating that it will increase rates once there are signs the economy is improving.
Is this really a time to be entering the market, or for those lucky enough to have been in early, a time to be weary and to take profits at the first signs of weakness? Comments? Can anyone give me a second opinion on Tsakos, TNP?
Thanks
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Ill liquidity on -
Ok, so it's finally time to give a little update on my rule1 investing foray. Frankly I'm losing -- it's not because of stock selection, for sure that part of the 4M approach was followed. I think the failing, at least mine personally, and this is nothing against Phil Town or anything, is the market timing and use of "tools". That's really the problem. Great companies -- no problem, discount prices -- no problem, market entry and exit using "tools" -- problem. So What's the Solution?! I guess it could be "buy and hold" which defeats the purpose of investing for yourself (the advantage of your small position sizing relative to institutional money). Let's face it, volatile market conditions can whipsaw you in and out and cause you to LOSE! OR, if you buy low and prices go lower, you're forced to wait around, potentially a long long wait around. Solution? Not sure, but this begs the question: is the work of finding a great company at a great price worth it? -- the good part of it is that you are more confident that the company stock price will EVENTUALLY come up if your timing is sloppy (nice insurance), the bad part is that you really don't have a big advantage, as a RULE#1 investor (opinion), over a swing trader IF you are both using the same "tools" to enter and exit positions -- in fact, a good swing trader may have a significant advantage over you by being able to use more popular and volatile stocks, buying into upswings and selling off an overpriced company to a "bigger fool". So am I done with Rule#1 investing? No, not yet, the insurance thing is good and I am young and can wait out the market, being confident in my company selection and the price of the stock being a bargain when I bought it... BUT it does mean that I will also be exploring OTHER strategies -- one being an adjustment of the "tools" to more appropriate entry signals based on broader market trends/sentiment. I believe that the 15% a year statement is BS. Comments welcome.
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