Share Your Number

Share Your Number

KC

99% can't save a million in 20 years - Adrian reports.

---

I was just reviewing the section "Roadmap to riches" at 7million7years Roadmap link where I noticed that Adrian was contrasting that 99% of people can't save $1M in 20 years, so trying for $7M in 7 years was quite ambitious.

So I loaded up my spreadsheet program to see just how easy it ought to be for ordinary folk to get to $1M in 20 years.

If there was no interest rate, then you'd need to save $50k per annum for 20 years - that most people could save a thousand a week sounds a bit unlikely to me, but I fear I'm missing some crucial point, that would explain why Adrian scoffs at anybody who can't make a mill in 20 years.

Anyway, using a model of tipping in the same lump sum of savings each year on January 1st, and with the same interest rate throughout the 20 years, I put this spreadsheet together, so you can experiment to see how much you'd need to put in, and what interest rate, to get to that million.

Save1million20years spreadsheet Google Docs

This spreadsheet seems to suggest that you'd have to save $500 a week ($26k per year) with a 6% interest rate to get to a million in 20 years - do we really think that's easy for most people?

I'm still worried I'm missing some key point here - comments welcome !

KC

Comment

You need to be a member of Share Your Number to add comments!

Join Share Your Number

Scott Comment by Scott on July 19, 2009 at 9:30am
Check out the investing calculator on Dave Ramsey's site. I use it a lot because it has some pretty cool features. He also has a mortgage calculator on his front page that has a lot of neat options all in one as well:


http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/investmentcenter/?Fuseaction=dspInvestmentCalculator&ictid=Useful_Tools


http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/realestatecenter/?FuseAction=dspMortgageCalculator&strMode=dspMortgageCalculator&ictid=Useful_Tools
Adrian Comment by Adrian on July 18, 2009 at 6:19am
I agree; however, those articles seem to the talking more about owning rental property and living off the income ... not a terribly bad MM301 idea :)
KC Comment by KC on July 18, 2009 at 5:23am
---

Yes, believing that your retirement will intrinsically be funded by the "value" in your home for those who can actually get onto the home mortgage ladder (and loads of people can't, either through not having sufficient money to laydown as the deposit; or can't afford the monthly payments) does seem suspect to me.

It's almost a lazy way of saying:

"I know I can't afford to save anywhere near enough for my retirement as currently my bills equal my income, so I darned well hope my house will fill that hole when the time comes".

Some commentators (admittedly before The Crash) on UK MSN Money give a vaguely favourable treatment on backing this hope:

Is property the new pension?

Property pension myth

What really bothers me is that such a high proportion of working people only earn enough to pay the bills - they don't have any possibility of saving for retirement, or anything.

Average earnings in the UK haven't increased in the last 20 years - this must be true, because 20 years ago a family with children could live on just the father's wages; today both parents have to go out to work, and can only afford children if a relative will care for them for free while they're at work.

This is called the "rise of the working poor" - today, although you may have a job, that doesn't mean you can be free of poverty, as so many jobs pay very low hourly rates.

KC
Adrian Comment by Adrian on July 18, 2009 at 4:44am
Great question, KC!

You could try using the 30 year 'guaranteed' stock market return (now in jeopardy, btw) of 8.5% ... but, the reality is that most people still can't do it ...

What you may be missing is the value of their home: which is almost guaranteed to net more that $1 mill of many people in 20 or so years: this is what most people base their retirement hopes on.

Yet, I wonder: where do they intend to live when they sell their home to fund their retirement? ;)

Subscribe by e-mail

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Badge

Loading…

© 2010   Created by Adrian.   Powered by .

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service

Sign in to chat!